I don't really mean that, but that in itself means very little. Just because one year preseason shows no trends for understanding playoffs, doesn't mean another year has to replicate it right?
The American Football Conference is a harsh, yet inviting midwife-always providing a strong and passionate effort, but remaining firm and sterile throughout the distress. Apparently, New England is a near-consensus pick to win the AFC Championship, or at the very least enter the playoffs as the conference's number one seed. The Patriots have done this before, making and winning the Super Bowl of 2001, only not miss out on the playoffs the next year, beating an AFC east rival in the final game of the season, only to lose the division's only playoff spot to a third AFC foe on tiebreakers. Bellicheck claims Brady played much of that season injured, nevertheless, the Patriots won the super bowl the following year, dashing a very rare hope for defending the title in Tampa Bay.
On a different note, the Pittsburgh Steelers are this year's defending champions. It is extremely difficult to win even consecutive conference crowns, but the Steelers seemed to have upgraded in the Cowher-Tomlin transition, and it doesn't hurt when 98% of the league's referee's are from Pennsylvania. I'm just kidding, and maybe mesmorized by how their season always seems to rely on a steady stream of close plays going their way. Plus running out the clock, of course. They are going to need a better running game than last year to have a shot. Wait, they play 4 games against teams from Ohio. Never mind.
The San Diego Chargers are supposed to be good ever year.
Here are some picks:
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New York Jets
All the time I hear, this division is so tough. Take the Patriots out and what do you have? In order according to my picks: the Bills haven't made the playoffs since the Taft administration, though I do remember my elementary school gym teacher adored them to no end, and had his office smothered with the team's posters. After that last super bowl, they were on the wrong end of the Music City Miracle, and haven't done much since. I thought the Jets would forever go 9-7 and lose the first play off game, until they found a way to be worse. The only time the Dolphins have been to the Super Bowl during my lifetime was in Ace Ventura: Pet Detective.Kellen Clemens has a chance to be good. They probably still won't be letting him play long, and they might even just be looking at this season as a building block. I guess with the volatility of the coaching profession, you can't really do that, but c'mon. It's not happening. Sanchez isn't pulling a Matt Ryan, and I'd be surprised if they have a voarcious defense.
The Bills will be better than you think. Even though their name and mascot are really befuddling, Terrell Owens will not make them worse. At the very least, I think it's clear they've been on a very gradual upswing. I'm not saying they'll make the playoffs, but the #6 seed will be within at least 2 games. They get the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots all at home after November 28th. Miami cannot sustain itself on the wildcat formation for the entire season, and this year they plays Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, plus the NFC South teams. No playoffs!
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland
I think the Steelers will end up at about 11-6, under the prsumption of a split with the Ravens, sweeping the Bengals and Browns. They have some cakewalks-like the Raiders, Chiefs, and Lions, but also some games which could prove of some challenge, against the Chargers, Broncos, Titans, Dolphins, Packers, and Bears.The Ravens play the exact same 4 non conference teams as the Steelers, and I believe they match up better. I think they matchup well with the Chargers, but haven't had as much success in recent games against the Steelers and Colts. They do have Ed Reed, and a complete core of solid defenders. I wouldn't assume the Ravens would drop any to the Ohio teams either, but am looking forward to the regular season matchup against the Patriots.The Bengals play in Cincinnati.The Browns play in Cleveland.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans
The Colts have the best NFL record for the last decade. They lost the division last year with a 12-4 record. Criticisms of the Colts remain, as can be said about any successful team. Marvin Harrison has a brilliant career, but Anthony Gonzalez will be a superior receiver in the 2009 season. Joseph Addai is oft underrated, yet question linger about the defense. Giving up over 300 yars to Darren Sproles in an overtime playoff game will do that. The Colts may be suspect at the cornerback and with some linebackers, but they will have a surprisingly good defensive line this year. Sanders and Vinitieri have injury issues, but Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea return.Houston is just waiting to burst out. They won 5 of their last 6 games in 2008, finishing 8-8, with two losses to the Colts totaling merely 7 points. The defense is so overlooked, it's ridiculous. Maybe not ridiculous, but it could be solid, and combined with an explosive offense, I believe at least 10 wins to be just over the horizon. Is that enough to grab a wild card spot? This isn't the NFC we're dealing with.
Jacksonville always plays division opponents very tough, and that can get you somewhere. To a third place finish, to be more specific. The Jaguars also get to play the Jets, Browns, Chiefs, 49'ers, and Rams. Juicy!It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the Titans won't be matching last year's success. Chris Johnson needs to be ridiculous for them to have a chance at grabbing the division crown again, as the playoffs showed what happens when they matchup against a hard hitting defense.I expect teams to be scoring over 21 points against Tennessee a bit more often this year.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders
This division blows. Not only has it recently had, arguably, 2 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL, it occasionally holds the 1st (or 32nd) team in its midst fairly frequently. Denver can't stop giving up touchdowns, and now they might not be able to score any. Their schedule is insanely hard, and though I do think Kyle Orton can have a good year (partly given his excellent receivers), the Broncos could very well finsih 4th in this division. And you know the Raiders won't have a winning record.I like Norv Turner. People sure are hard on him. And Frankly, since when did making the playoffs in San Diego become a minimum requirement? I say they are poised to prove themselves overrated this season, but they finish 8-8 last year. A 9-7 record will be a lock for this division, and they might not need that many.
The Chargers need to score points to win though, and they may well have running back issues. Kansas City will be much improved, and look out for the highlight hogging, touchdown-laden combo of Cassel-Bowe. If they can avoid giving up 54 points to the Buffalo Bills two years running, it won't be extremely difficult to improve on a 2-14 record. They got the offensive coordinator from last year's super bowl runner up Arizona, who I'm certain is capable of figuring out how to grab 3 or 4 division wins. Kansas City also plays the AFC teams who finsished 4th (last) in their respective divisions in 2008. The most recent AFC west team to make the super bowl was actually Oakland, 7 years ago. They lost. I am not enthused about a division struggling to not be the worst in the NFL.
Playoff teams (in order of seeding): Indianapolis, New England, Baltimore, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Houston.
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