I was originally just going to pick the potential playoff teams, but instead I believe I will attempt to rank every division. However, I will not be predicting the winners and losers of the playoffs, as that is 1) difficult, and 2) inconsequential to the excitement of the beginning of the year, when even Raiders fans can convince themselves to be excited.
Over the last 3 seasons, 7, 6, and 7 of the previous year's playoff teams missed out on the postseason the following season. I do not expect this trend to stop, and frankly I think it would be silly to expect fewer than 4 or 5 of last year's playoff teams to miss out this year, especially considering the quality of teams that made it in the 08/09 season. Specifically, the NFC South hasn't had a single team make the playoffs in back to back years in quite some time.
Heading the list of teams that rank highest on the list of NOT returning to the playoffs are Miami, Philadelphia, Carolina, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Arizona, and Atlanta. Teams I beliebve might be on the upswing are Green Bay, Washington, New Orleans, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Houston. Not to say they will make the playoffs, but I think these teams have a chance of achieving a better record.
Without further ado:
NFC EAST:
1. New York Giants
2. Washington Redskins
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Once again, the NFC East is poised to put 2 or 3 teams into the playoffs. It certainly will be difficult for the Giants to repeat their recent success, but it's also tough to bet against a team that's made the playoffs this many years running. Simply put, it's their division to lose. The Cowboys are a bit of a unpredictable quality. I certainly expect both them and the Redskins to improve on last year's records, but both times will again rely heavily on their running games, with each team lacking deep passing threats. Good quarterbacks, but a weak receiving core plague these teams, aside from their respective tight ends, who are both quite good. The Eagles will suck. Despite having one of the best running backs in history, their passing game, coaching, offenseive line, defense and special teams are all suspect in my opinion. The Eagles will have a losing record. I should note all 4 of these teams play the AFC West, which will certainly provide a boost.
I believe the difference lies in the schedule, as these teams are capable of beating each other head to head. The Redskins have road games against Oakland and Detroit, while getting Denver, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans at home. As they finished last in the division last year, they get to play last place teams this season. Dallas, on the other hand, must travel to Green Bay, Denver, and New Orleans. I could go more into detail here, best rest assured there is a clear distinction the difficulty of their respective schedules. Road games at Chicago, Atlanta, San Diego, and San Diego will be too much for the Eagles to overcome.
NFC NORTH:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Detroit Lions
Goodness, this division sure does blow for one that has so many famous teams. This division plays all the AFC North teams, which pretty much means nothing, as Pittsburgh and Baltimore are almost certain losses, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are expected victories. Here, I look to see which team has the highest ceiling for improvement, and that appears to be Green Bay, with star receivers, an improving quarterback, and an underrated running back in Ryan Grant. Minnesota is going to have some serious problems, as teams will completely sell out against the run.
I think Chicago will make a concerted run at the division title, with a new quarterback and probably the 2nd best running back in the division. Still, they never seem to put it all together, getting blown out by good teams, losing close games, and out of all the contenders, they are the most likely to drop a game or two to cellar dwellers. Don't discount the quality of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' home field advantage, or the fact that they are further out of the shadow of Brett Favre than last year. I believe the Lions might actually surprise people and grab 5-8 wins this year, but to believe them to have a shot at the playoffs is overly optimistic. I wouldn't expect the wild card to come out of the NFC North.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I earnestly believe this is the most improved division in football over the last 5 years, with the possible exception of the AFC South. With a slew of games versus the NFC East, we will have tangible evidence if these teams' recent success is flukish or not. Again I repeat that no team has made the playoffs two years in a row from this division in several years. It seems clear to me that Carolina is on a downswing, and will rely heavily on their talented running backs and shaky defense. It's very possible that they lose their close games this year, falling to a losing record.
Even with the apt criticisms of the Saints past performances, I believe them to be the best team in this division. Any slight improvement in defensive play will shoot them to at least 10 wins. It's hard to argue with a team that seems to score over 30 points a game, they have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, a good coach, and a waiting to breakout running back in Pierre Thomas. Their style is well suited for dome play, and there's not a single team in the division they can't beat. Remember, the Saints finished 4th last year which means Redskins, Rams, and Lions this year. Add in games against Buffalo, the Jets, and Miami, and it is welcome to flavor country. Simply put their better than the other 3 NFC South teams.
Watch out for THE BURNER. Unfortunately for the Falcons, there's not much else to watch out for. They clearly played far past their ability last year, and it seems difficult to see Roddy White having the same kind of season. Matt Ryan is good, but not great, much of his hype had to do with being a rookie. They have a defense which could crumble and questionable coaching. 10 wins is the ceiling, but that's not winning this division.
In Tampa Bay there are talks of Luke McCown starting at quarterback. A 4-12 season awaits.
NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Saint Louis Rams
3. San Francisco 49'ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
The order of teams 2-4 is failr irrelevant, as there is 0% chance the wild card comes out of this division. When the bottom three teams all finsih with some combination of 7-9 through 5-11, don't scream at me about the order being wrong. This division seems up for grabs, and there certainly is parody, but in a divison of forgetten victories, scrappy dreams, old quarterbacks, and silly defenses, it all comes down to logic.
There is no historical proof or even realistic evidence to support the idea that St Lous or the 49'ers can suddenly make the dance. Arizona only went 9-7 last year, and that was in this division! If Kurt Warner gets inured, do you know who plays quarterback? Do you? It won't be pretty.
For the Seahawks, Matt Hasselback is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league and they still have receiving threats. Perhaps the three biggest reasons I picked the Seahawks are that they do know how to win, they have a terrifically soft schedule, and they are nasty at home. Just unbelievable. The biggest home field advantage in football, bar none.
So who makes the playoffs then? Well clearly the 4 division winners top the list. As for the wild card, it's a bit more difficult, but I am going to have to go with the Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins as the #5 and #6 seeds. The Redskins have historically found ways to lose games when it seemed like it couldn't happen, but the Cowboys just flat out suck in any game of even partial relevance. No matter how bad they beat up on the Cleveland Browns, you shouldn't believe what Troy Aikman says. He's a republican.
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