They will be who we thought they would be

Sunday represents a turning point in the NFL season. After four games, records will be important enough to influence which teams will be likely to make or miss the playoffs. Excitement for the novelty of the season beginning will be replaced by the energy powering intense media scrutiny. Players, coaches, and teams will be instantly categorized, even if it does mean in week 14 you'll like like an idiot for thinking the Broncos were going to make the playoffs.

Win or no playoffs for you, Week 4:

All the 0-3 teams, plus Washington, Arizona, Houston, Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, and Chicago

Most of the teams that would need to win by merely Week 4 are just so bad that any talk of playoffs is just unnecessary anyway. There are differing reasons for the teams listed above. Washington would lack the confidence needed to turn a season around if they lose to Tampa Bay on Sunday. The same level of embarrassment applies to Dallas if they lose. Arizona falls somewhere in the middle, a 1-3 record would basically mean they are not improving on last season. Buffalo can't lose a divisional game, and along with Houston they understand that even 11-5 is sometimes not good enough for a wild card in the AFC.

Still doesn't matter:

Indianapolis, NY Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and San Diego

All these teams will still be favorites to make the playoffs even with losses this weekend.

Something to prove:

Baltimore, NY Jets, Denver, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Miami

Something to lose:

New England, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Tennessee

I like the following picks:

San Diego (+7) vs Pittsburgh

New Orleans (-7) vs NY Jets

Tennessee (-3) vs Jacksonville

Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo

Money in the bank: Cincinnati (-6) vs Cleveland

Slobberknocker of the week: Baltimore @ New England