Quick note to Karol from I Had Outs: I'm sorry for not replying to the comment you made a couple weeks ago. I only saw it recently. I'm going to start posting my picks for NFL bets and I'll include picks for suicide pools. So, if you're still alive in that, feel free to use my picks at your own discretion. If you are not Karol, I recommend reading her blog here.
As the title of this post already explained, I like to bet on NFL games because losing money is one of my five favorite activities in life. Betting on games can really do wonders for your average NFL Sunday. Games like say, Bengals-Jets go from exercises in futility to the most important game in your path to gambling glory. Admit it, you're kind of sold on this already. How does NFL betting work, you ask? Well, let me explain.
When you bet on football games you don't bet on who wins, you bet on the point spread. The point spread works like this: This weekend the Jaguars are +3.5 at the Broncos. This basically translates to the Jaguars getting spotted 3.5 points and the Broncos (-3.5) get docked 3.5 points. If you bet on Denver, you're not betting that they win, you're betting that they win by more than 3.5 points. So, if Denver were to win 26-24, your bet on Denver would lose because they didn't cover the spread. In the same sense, the Jaguars would lose the game but bets on them would win since they lost by less than 3.5 points. Does this make sense? Good, let's move on to parlays.
Parlays are how bookies take your money. Betting on a single game usually pays of less than 1:1. A $5 bet might have a return of anything between $4 and $4.70 depending in the odds laid by the booking agent. So, people looking for the big score have to bet parlays in order to do so. In a parlay, you bet multiple games. The more games you bet, the better the payoff is. The problem is that it is really freakin' hard to win parlays. You can bet as many games as you want, but if you lose any of those games you lost the whole bet. A single NFL spread is difficult to predict. Betting on multiple spreads successfully is like (insert metaphor implying difficulty here). Parlays are the reason I lose money. If you listen to one thing I say in this whole post, listen to this: DO NOT BET ON PARLAYS
I haven't kept any records for my picks this season, but I will start doing so after this week. I won't bet on all of these games but I will try and make some effort to think about my picks before I post them. I'll explain some more than others depending on... Whatever, I do what I want. Onto the picks...
(Please note that these picks are for the spread and not necessarily the winner. Home teams in BOLD)
Lock of the week:
Saints (-7) over Raiders
Most NFL games are decided by less than a touchdown, but the Raiders are awful and the Saints score more than Madonna in the 80s. They also got rid of Martin "I Wish This Was Soccer" Grammatica and got a real kicker. Why am I mentioning this? I'm gonna look like a genius when a late field goal covers the spread. Or, this game could be over in the first quarter. Either way, I like this pick.
Colts (-4) over Ravens
When will the world let me bet on the number of times Peyton Manning scowls on the sideline?
Panthers (+1.5) over Bucs
Logic dictates you don't bet against a good team at home. Well, I think the Panthers are better and you can't tell me the fans in Tampa provide any kind of home field advantage. Also, Jeff Garcia is back in the saddle for the Bucs. I'm not betting on a team changing quarterbacks for the second time in six weeks.
Vikings (-13.5) over Lions
It's a lot of points and I don't trust the Vikings to score too much, but... Wow, the Lions are awful.
Falcons (+3) over Bears
I got nothin'
Dolphins (+3) over Texans
This feels like a trap bet because the Texans are due for a win and the Dolphins are due for a loss. Actually, don't bet on this game.
Redskins (-14) over Rams
The odds are either the Rams or the Lions will cover, but I'm not about to bet on either of them. The Rams look like a high school team out there.
Jaguars (+3.5) over Broncos
The Broncos don't play defense. The Jaguars used to play defense. More importantly, Jack del Rio is smart enough to keep Jay Cutler off the field and win this by one point.
49ers (+5) over Eagles
The Eagles - Brian Westbrook = Lobsters - Salt water (that would be dead)
Packers (-3) over Seahawks
This is just the type of game Aaron Rodgers needs to get his swagger back.
Chargers (-5) over Patriots
This bet will certainly lose because a certain higher power wants to make me look stupid for sticking with the Chargers. This is a make or break game for San Diego though and I still think they're good enough to pull this one out.
Giants (-8) over Browns
The Giants are looking reall... Aaaah! You almost had me there, football gods. Well, guess what? I ain't sayin' shit! No jinx! (Go Giants)
I have no idea. Can't we just bet everybody has fun?:
Jets (-6.5) over Bengals
This is like the exact opposite of Sophie's Choice. Ouch. Too soon?
Cowboys (-6) over Cardinals
So much for Pacman Jones staying out of trouble. Looking back, maybe it was a bad idea to get every troubled star in the league. I'm not ready to count the Cowboys out (from Superbowl contention) though. Don't be surprised if they get their act together this week and go off on the Cardinals. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals put up 41 again either. This really could go either way.
I've never bet on a suicide pool but I'll try and make three solid picks. For those of you who don't know, a suicide pool is where you pick one and only one team to win every week. If that team loses, you're out of the pool. Ideally, you want to pick bad teams early in the season because you're really going to hate yourself if you lose on the Chiefs in week 16.
Safe bet: Vikings
Smart bet: Jets
Gamble gamble: Dolphins, 49ers
I still talk about football too much and real issues too little. To the readers who might want more explanations of football betting (you know who you are!) leave a comment and I'll try to be more articulate in the future. Also, don't trust my picks.
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